Working Paper Series

Working Paper 1: From Fragments to Composition: The Origins of Economic Thought in Modern Greece

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Author: Michalis Psalidopoulos

Abstract: The present contribution sheds light on the period before and after the revolution of ’21 from the viewpoint of the history of economic thought. We begin our investigation in the middle of the 18th century aspiring to throw light on the economic element of the neo-Hellenic spiritual movement in the process of its establishment.

Working Paper 2: REPowerEU INITIATIVES: A PRELIMINARY APPROACH

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Author: Spyridon V. Branis

Abstract: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised the issues of energy security and availability in Europe. Around 30-45% of Europe’s natural gas demand has been historically imported from Russia. REPowerEU initiative (March 8th, 2022) has been designed to implement the reduction on gas from the region in parallel with the decarbonization process. In this paper, we present the initial EU plan rational, its short-term and long-term targets until 2030. The scenario of abrupt stop of Gazprom’s pipeline exports is discussed. Constraints on gas supply could result in an increase of coal power generation over the short term. Renewables and nuclear energy options are practically long-term solutions and their impact on Europe’s energy independence is discussed. The updated REPowerEU initiative (May 18th, 2022) is also presented. Its aims remain the rapid reduction of dependence on Russian fossil fuels, the acceleration of EU transition to a clean economy and the increase the resilience of the EU energy system. The key package of proposals and actions: save energy, diversify of energy imports, substitute fossil fuels through Europe’s clean energy transition process and smartly combine investments and reforms is presented. Finally the merits and critical points of REPowerEU ambitious plan are discussed.

Working Paper 3: Meta-Intelligence: Forming the Scaffolding that Forms You

Author: Dimitrios Makris

Abstract: This research investigates a crucial but under-explored pattern of innovators’ approach conducive to the generation of innovation, from idea to commercial development; innovators possess the capacity to critically reflect and to, simultaneously, actively manage their environments. “Meta-intelligence” captures the capacity to interrogate and curate one’s environment. Meta-intelligence entails critical reflection on a dynamic situation one is embedded in and, also, actively managing it. Placing oneself in the appropriate context is a signature characteristic of meta-intelligence in action, innovators place themselves in contexts that propel them forwards. Data from interviews were collected through qualitative research and indicate that practitioners of innovation display meta-intelligence in their innovation-generation efforts. Bricolage serves as a key theory as the repertoire of experiential schemata nurtures meta-intelligence. The findings align with dynamic capabilities theory in connection to the innovative capability and the managerial activity of transforming.

Working Paper 4: ECB between Scylla & Charybdis: Stagflation vs Fragmentation

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Author: Spyridon V. Branis

Abstract: The euro area economy has been looking more like (the picture in) the U.S. and the U.K.: wage
growth accelerates and inflation is getting stickier. Those concerns have pushed the European
Central Bank (ECB) to act faster to tighten monetary policy. By leaving behind nearly a decade of
negative interest rates, EU government bond yields in the periphery have crept into the “danger
zone”. The ECB is thus faced with a dilemma. It needs to tighten monetary policy in order to rein
in unexpectedly high inflation and at the same time to prevent fragmentation of financial markets
across the eurozone. The euro area may be about to experience something new: fragmentation in
its financial markets in a situation characterized by stagflation. As Italian government bond yields
climb, officials in Frankfurt assembled a new backstop anti-fragmentation tool for sovereign debt to
make sure they can hike rates as needed to cool inflation. The developments and the public
debates that had led to ECB’s July 21 & September 8, October 27 and December 15 meetings
decisions on interest rate hikes and the new anti-fragmentation tool are presented and discussed.
The accumulated clouds of persistent inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the energy crisis,
Italian debt sustainability and the upcoming eurozone recession are presented in sync with market
expectations and interest rate projections. A forward guidance, for the ECB policy in 2023 is
presented. ECB will stay hawkish to anchor inflation expectations until core inflation is safely on
target.

Working Paper 5: Online Travel Inspiration Under the Influence of COVID-19 Consumer Perception of Risk: Investigating Antecedents and Consequences

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Authors: Christina Giakoumaki, Eleni Mavragani, Antonios Giannopoulos, Anastasia Pantazi

Abstract: Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism, among many sectors, has been negatively affected. Can tourism be encouraged and sustained through digital solutions? This research focuses on some important antecedents of online travel inspiration, as well as some key outcomes. A survey with a sample of 249 individuals reveals that while openness to experience and desire and/or intent to visit a destination does not affect online travel inspiration associated with a specific destination, travel risk perception and previous visit to that destination are key determinant factors. In addition, this study shows that people’s online travel inspiration affects their emotions, willingness to participate in online co-creation experiences and behavioral intentions to interact with an online platform that offers an alternative to physical traveling. The main contribution of this study is the examination of the construct “online travel inspiration” during a time of crisis, such as the COVID-19 outbreak, while it also offers suggestions to practitioners in the tourism field regarding the creation of inspirational activities online.

Working Paper 6: Drivers of Customer Engagement on LinkedIn: Uncovering The Role of Employees as Spokespersons

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Authors: Areti Krepapa, Filoumena Zlatanou

Abstract: This paper explores drivers of customer engagement with corporate brands on LinkedIn and tests a theoretical model linking thinking processes and post source characteristics to customer digital engagement. The study design employs an exploratory content analysis of 788 LinkedIn posts and an experimental research study (N=334), in the context of the CRM industry. Findings show that content with an informational purpose and posts created or shared by employees rather than company pages result in greater engagement rates. Drawing from attribution and source credibility theories, the study also tests a model of serial mediation to explain attribution and source effects on engagement. Results show that both trustworthiness through identification mediate the relationship between attribution style and engagement. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Working Paper 7: Redefining recruitment and selection processes for responsible AI in pre-employment assessments

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Author: Olivia Kyriakidou

Abstract: The objective of the paper is fourfold: a) to focus on a specific HRM process, such as the pre-employment assessments that take place in the recruitment and selection process, b) explore how AI works in pre-employment assessments, c) identify how biases could be incorporated in AI in pre-employment assessments, and d) develop a framework for future work and practice for the development and implementation of ethical AI in pre-employment assessments. In this way, our paper contributes to the development and implementation of ethical AI tools and technologies, maximizing the benefits of AI systems in HRM and especially pre-employment assessments while at the same time preventing their risks.

Working Paper 8: Flexible working arrangements, ostracism and inequality: The role of LMX and servant leadership

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Authors: Olivia Kyriakidou, Anna-Liza Manali and Angeliki Vourlou-Barza

Abstract: The unanticipated disruption caused by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic led to the extensive use of flexible working arrangements. In such a boundaryless work environment, however, there are significant concerns, especially around inclusivity and discrimination in hybrid and remote work settings. Given the increasing concerns, we investigated whether the extent of working in substantially flexible working arrangements relates to employees’ perceived ostracism and inequality, distinguishing between working from home, in a hybrid mode or from the office. In addition, we theorized that in flexible working arrangements, high-quality leader relationships, such as LMX and servant leadership, are likely to reduce perceptions of ostracism and inequality. Based on a survey of 61 professionals who worked to varied degrees in flexible working arrangements, we found that employees who worked extensively in a hybrid mode were less likely to report experiences of ostracism and inequality in comparison to employees who worked mainly from home or in an office. Furthermore, a moderation analysis showed that the effects of LMX and servant leadership on perceptions of ostracism and inequality were much stronger for individuals who work in hybrid working arrangements than those who work at the office or from home. This research significantly improves our understanding of how different degrees of flexible working arrangements affect employees and by demonstrating the role of high-quality leader relationships in reducing perceptions of ostracism and inequality at different degrees of work flexibility.

Working Paper 9: Hypertension and Anxiety: Comorbidity, Treatment and Access to Resources

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Authors: Stella Jacqueline Versteeg and Athena Stefanatou

Abstract: Hypertension and its comorbidity with anxiety disorders is a global concern even more prevalent in developing countries. There is limited data from low-income countries. Existing literature has consistently exhibited a positive association between hypertension and anxiety, although the directional dependency between the two conditions is difficult to be determined. Studies have suggested a reciprocal relationship between the two, with hypertension symptoms such as headaches, shortness of breath, fear of complications, and dizziness triggering feelings of anxiety. Similarly, the pre-existing presence of anxiety may induce temporary, yet dramatic spikes in blood pressure as well as long-term issues with hypertension. This paper provides a review of the widely investigated association between hypertension and anxiety and describes the impact that one condition has on the other in terms of psychological and physical functioning, and risk factors. Additionally, a discrepancy between prevalence, ability to control, and treatment between affluent and developing countries are discussed. The most common and effective pharmacological and psychotherapeutic treatments are presented and reviewed. Evidence-based interventions include mindfulness-based treatments such as MBSR and MBCT, ABBTs such as ACT, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), and motivational interviewing. Suggestions for future treatment options and management of both conditions are presented, with an emphasis on populations in developing countries. To address discrepancies in access to resources, urbanization, and high illiteracy rates, a global risk approach is presented.

Working Paper 10: Fresh Evidence from Temperature Effects on Growth and Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Panel Quantile Approach

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Authors: Flora Leventis, Panagiotis Palaios

Abstract: This paper provides fresh evidence of temperature effects on GDP per capita growth and economic policy uncertainty (𝑒𝑝𝑢). We apply the quantile via moments methodology (Machado and Santos Silva, 2019) in a sample of 35 countries for the period 1980-2021, the most current time frame of the work we reviewed. To the best of our knowledge, temperature effects on 𝑒𝑝𝑢, in a panel quantile setting, have not been examined before. Our empirical results provide evidence in favor of asymmetric temperature impacts on both growth rates and 𝑒𝑝𝑢. Specifically, we find that: First, the impact of temperature and of its interaction with economic policy uncertainty on the growth rate is negative, quadratic, and more intense for poorer countries. Second, the combined temperature and policy uncertainty effect on growth rates is of greater magnitude compared to the simple temperature effect. Third, hotter countries are more vulnerable to economic policy uncertainty, with the effect being more pronounced as uncertainty increases.

Working Paper 11: Transmission of Sovereign Risk Among European Union Member States

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Author: Flora Leventis

Abstract: Following the financial crisis of 2007-08, both in academic as well as policy circles, much of the research focused on the systemic importance of financial institutions. Parallel to that research there have been improvements in our understanding of how risk is transmitted from the financial system to the real economy. This paper investigates a related yet distinct manifestation of systemic risk, namely systemic sovereign risk by revisiting the European sovereign debt crisis. Using data on sovereign credit default swap spreads from 11 euro member countries the study examines how the sovereign risk of one member country can affected others, as well as the overall impact in the system. The work is based on the approach of Adrian and Brunnermeier (2010), used to assess systemic risk contributions among financial institutions. Focusing on sovereigns rather than financial institutions, this study expands on the literature by examining the European sovereign debt crisis. I find that the proposed measure of systemic sovereign risk of a country increases conditional on an increase on another country’s sovereign risk, at least up to a certain threshold, while I also observe a clear difference between core and periphery countries with respect to their systemic risk contributions and vulnerability within the system.

Working Paper 12: The Greek economy, Looking back and charting the way forward

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Author: Institute for Hellenic Growth and Prosperity

Abstract: In 2012, McKinsey produced a report titled “Greece 10 Years Ahead,” outlining the possibilities for Greece’s economic growth and development in the middle of a severe Greek Government Debt Crisis that began in 2009. In 2017, the American College of Greece (ACG), in response, created a strategic plan designed “to leverage education for social and economic impact,” especially by creating Centers of Excellence (Food, Tourism & Leisure; Logistics, Shipping & Transportation; and Sustainability, as well as a Research, Technology & Innovation Network), all under the auspices of the Institute for Hellenic Growth and Prosperity (IHGP). In 2020, the Pissarides Committee Report, “Growth Plan for the Greek Economy” (2020), was submitted to the Greek government and suggested a less centralized and more market-driven approach to economic policy. Subsequently, the Greek government issued a “Greece 2.0 National Recovery and Resilience Plan” (2021) aimed at framing economic development towards clean energy and digital transformation. The present IHGP update examines all these Reports in the light of economic and political developments between 2012 and 2022. It concludes that having followed the McKinsey 2012 recommendations proved to be a wise decision. In addition, IHGP offers a new set of recommendations for improving the economy in specific sectors and suggestions for the Greek educational system. These are designed to address changes in economic conditions and market demand. Finally, the IHGP recommends that ACG 150 create a new Center of Excellence focusing on Digital Transformation, Artificial Intelligence and Computer Sciences in general, as well as enriching its private sector outreach and curriculum by developing a “start-up” network in cooperation with its existing partnerships.

Working Paper 13: Global Port Detentions: Impact on Financial Performance in the Maritime Sector

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Authors: Anna Merika, Xakousti-Afroditi Merika, Theodore Syriopoulos

Abstract: Port State Control (PSC) is the authority overseeing vessel technical and safety compliance in accordance with IMO regulations. The number of detained vessels has been declining over the last decade, despite fleet growth and expanding trading routes, as shipowners responded in a receptive manner to the increasingly stringent regulatory framework. This study aims to delve into the relationship, between vessel detentions and the financial performance of the maritime sector, as evidenced by freight rates, within a progressively rigorous regulatory landscape. It is expected that during periods of higher earnings, shipowners would exercise heightened diligence, given that a potential detention could entail substantial revenue loss. To investigate this, monthly hand collected data is gathered from Paris MoU and Tokyo MoU– bodies representing European and Asian port state control authorities, respectively – spanning the years 2010 to 2021. Through the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, we unveil intriguing insights: institutional factors such as class and flag, alongside the nature of ship deficiencies pertaining to safety at sea and environmental protection, emerge as the primary drivers elucidating vessel detentions sanctioned by port authorities. What is surprising though, is our finding of a strong, positive and bidirectional relationship between ship detentions and economic activity in the sector. This study unveils a compelling signal that diverges from conventional wisdom, holding the potential to reverberate across all stakeholders engaged in the sector.

Working Paper 14: Sustainability & connectedness to 'nature': Tracking the under-represented impact of cultural diversity & spatiotemporal proximity

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Author: Ryan Rabett

Abstract: International advisory science demonstrates with increasing certainty that the current climate and biodiversity crises facing the planet are the consequence of human activity. Governmental and societal awareness of this is now widespread. Advocacy of individual and local action for the collective good at all stages of life has become mainstream and a maxim for people and institutions to align routines, activities and policies in order to achieve more sustainable lifeways. While thinking globally and acting locally has long been presented as a navigable channel between the small (e.g., personal) and the large (global) scale aspects of this relationship, very little is known about how individual motivation is affected by cultural and spatiotemporal variability. This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art regarding human connectedness to nature and makes provisional suggestions about how to accommodate the effects of cultural diversity and spatial and temporal remoteness pursuant to a more sustainable relationship between people and the natural environment.

Working Paper 15: Household wellbeing: the key to a sustainable and sufficient economy

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Author: Eleni Papathanasopoulou

Abstract:

The pursuit of increased income to enable ever higher levels of consumption is often justified by the argument that higher consumption leads to higher levels of wellbeing. Studies have shown, however, that consumption is not the only explanatory variable when considering an individual’s wellbeing. Using time use data for adults in the UK from 2016 to 2021, this paper shows that the difference between individuals with high and low wellbeing can be partially explained by the time spent on specific activities such as leisure and eating together. These activities are highly rated on the enjoyment scale across the whole sample but only a small percentage of the population spends significant time on them. Insight such as these provide policy discussion to propose alternatives lifestyles that can contribute to wellbeing more holistically and have reduced environmental footprints.

Working Paper 16: Asymmetric Climate Effects on Eurozone Sovereign Yields: Evidence from Quantile Regression

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Authors: Panagiotis Palaios, Flora Leventis

Abstract:

In the present study, we examine the relationship among sovereign yields, temperature and precipitation using a large monthly panel data set consisting of 20 eurozone members from 1980M1 to 2023M4. To account for possible asymmetries along the distribution of the climate variables, we assume a quadratic modeling specification and apply various mean panel estimation techniques of heterogeneous coefficients. At a next step, to consider possible nonlinearities in the distribution of the dependent variable (sovereign yields), we apply the quantile via moments methodology of Machado and Santos Silva (2019), which accounts for possible cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. We contribute to the existing literature in two main ways. First, by applying a quantile methodology that provides a more in-depth analysis of the climate effects along the distribution of the sovereign yields, especially in the presence of non-normally distributed data. Second, we find that climate change, as proxied by higher temperatures or lower precipitation (drought), will increase the sovereign risk of all countries, but the magnitude of the impact will be higher for countries that are already characterized by higher sovereign risk levels and/or face extreme weather conditions (hotter countries and/or countries with low levels of precipitation).

Working Paper 17: Strategic adaptation to regulatory shocks: Learning from a disruptive environmental regulation

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Authors: Christos Sigalas, Vasilis Papadakis, Epaminodas Koronis

Abstract:

As business systems are increasingly affected by regulatory changes and other changes in their macro environment, often addressed as shocks, the ability of organizations to respond by triggering strategic adaptations to these changes becomes critical for their survival and resilience. In this paper we explore, through a multiple case studies analysis, how different maritime shipping firms have responded to the International Maritime Organization sulfur cap 2020 regulation. A taxonomy of strategic reactions is developed, codifying the 4Cs (Circumvent, Comply, Combine, Conceptualize) as observed responses. We also argue that internal capabilities as well as adjustment costs are critical in the formation of adaptation strategies in response to external regulatory changes; and we propose that firms develop strategic responses to external environment shocks based on our proposed taxonomy of strategies and their awareness of their internal capabilities and resilience drivers.

Working Paper 18: Empirical investigation of resource allocation choices in asset-intensive industries

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Author: Christos Sigalas

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of tangible and intangible resource allocation in asset-intensive organizations, by employing a qualitative and a quantitative study in the setting of maritime shipping industry. First, seven in-depth interviews were employed to identify the firm-specific factors that shape resource allocation decision making. Second, a unique panel dataset of public maritime shipping companies for the period 2010-2020 is utilized to empirically investigate the identified determinants of resource allocation choices. The results indicate that factors, such as firm’s risk seeking profile, smaller size, limited cash liquidity, capability to access capital, lower cost of equity capital, higher cost of debt capital, lower level of insiders’ ownership, younger CEO, and limited environmental-related disclosures are positively affecting the number of tangible resources allocated. The findings, apart from enriching the body of literature, have some managerial implications that are discussed herein.

Working Paper 19: Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy Geopolitical Risks?

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Author: Nick Laopodis

Abstract:

This paper investigates whether geopolitical risk measures have some statistical significance for 20
advanced country equity portfolios in the presence of the Fama-French factors. Baseline results
indicated that some Fama-French factors appear to be significant for some country and regional
equity portfolios. The coefficient of the general geopolitical risk index emerged with a negative sign
suggesting a decline in these countries’ equity portfolios but not always as statistically significant.
Furthermore, when using the two components of the main risk index, geopolitical threats and acts, it
was found that these risk components either marginally added statistical significance or not at all
beyond what the main risk index provided. Additional results using panel specification and the FamaMacBeth methodology corroborated the above findings. The main findings imply that geopolitical
risks may not always be statistically relevant to general equity portfolios in the presence of the
market factor.

Working Paper 20: Do revisions in the UK Corporate Governance code effect firm value and earnings management practices?

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Authors: Anna Constantatos, Anna Merika, Xakousti-Afroditi Merika

Abstract:

This paper examines how the revision of the UK Corporate Governance (CG) Codes has affected firm profitability, earnings management and operating expenses in the setting of the FTSE100 listed companies. We employ content analysis in order to explore the implementation of the UK CG Code recommendations by the listed companies of our sample, as well as a quantitative study with a panel data set, to empirically investigate, respectively, the impact of CG Code revisions implementation on profitability, earnings management and operational expenses. Our findings suggest that CG Code revisions are positively associated with profitability and negatively associated with earnings management and operational expenses.

Working Paper 21: Hybrid Threat Effects: Exploring Growth Linkages in Geopolitical Context

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Authors: Panagiotis Palaios*, George Zombanakis

Abstract:

This paper aims to assess the extent to which hybrid threats affect the rate of growth of an economy. The answer to this research question is considered by focusing on a specific pair of countries, namely Greece and Turkey, both being NATO members. We use a system of equations for each of the two counties which relate GDP growth rates to an interaction variable incorporating hybrid threats and defense equipment purchases. The results show that there is a statistically significant effect of the hybrid threat on the growth rate of both countries, which, to a large extent, relates to the development of the domestic military-industrial base. The policy implications derived point to the need for investment in domestic defense technology and infrastructure, not only for reasons of deterrence but also for promoting economic growth.

* Corresponding Author

Working Paper 22: Supplier Selection of Combat Vessels under Geopolitical Uncertainty: The Case of the Hellenic Navy

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Authors: Panagiotis Palaios*, Georgios Kapogiannis, Andreas – Minos Zompanakis

Abstract:

This paper tackles the issue of supplier selection as regards combat vessels, in an uncertainty environment. The methodology employed is developed in two stages: The first is the deterministic one which applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) aiming at a quantifying assessment of the characteristics of each of the designs and leading to a hierarchy ordering as regards the features of each vessel. At a second step, we introduce stochastic analysis in our model to consider the impact of geopolitical uncertainty, a modification that, to the best of our knowledge, has not been examined before in a military supply selection model. By doing so, we consider the extent to which the initial hierarchy ordering of the vessels obtained after the application of the deterministic methodology is affected. Our method is applied to the case of the procurement of a number of frigates by the Hellenic Navy in 2021. The empirical results underline the role of geopolitical uncertainty as it affects the supplier selection process. Therefore, the paper underlines the importance of considering possible relevant geopolitical benefits to accompany the technical, operational and economic assessment related to the purchase of combat vessels.

* Corresponding Author